Trading Signs

MF Global Precurser to European Debacle

2011-11-09T07:56:00.004-05:00

Possible real game changer today, market may be finally moving from oscillation and into sustained down move. Charts need to prove this out. Set up is there but will it work?

Elliott Wave Theory & Analysis

2011-07-21T06:23:00.006-04:00

Here are some thoughts about EWT and analysis. This ingenious technique was derived by the accountant Ralph Elliott after being struck by an illness and consequently turned his focus analyzing stock market charts. It is basically a method of charting human emotion, the two basic human emotion components of greed and fear. One can primarily see this in an EW5 to 1 to 2 to 3 transition. The chart posted below shows a particularly nasty 24 hour time frame EW4 ABC move (yellow box). A drop occurred right after the close to 1315.75 (intel earnings), then we go up, this prolly eased some bulls minds, but then in subsequent a/h action we move back down to 1316. As my EW teacher said, it is best to stay away from EW4 moves and this one shows the angst and apprehension that accompanies these '4' moves unless one can identify them and therefore identify the levels when one needs to switch. A particularly nasty one. If one cannot identify these, one is positioned right, then wrong, then right.

ES day trading risk is always limited to a 4 to 6 tick loss with a risk/reward ratio set to 3 to 1 or above. By applying EWT to this equation one can see if we are in an EW3 or 5 with a better than 3 to 1 ratio,or if one should be apprehensive of a brewing EW2 or 4, or ending 3 or 5 and be watchful to getting out quickly if positioned and reversing. It is surprising that one can achieve a successful gain in one's portfolio with a 40% success ratio, by applying EWT to trading can boost this percentage much much higher as the understanding of the correct direction, anticipated breadth, and pending limitation of the run becomes instrumental in appraising entries and exits.

Charts de Katzo7

2011-06-27T14:52:00.004-04:00

Hi guys,

Katzo7's charts on current market view.

enjoy!!

http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2d68d1d8-9bba-4441-9948-212f9259d017

http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/adf9b827-6d37-483f-a8c4-81c0f80db2fd

Market Make or Break Time

2011-06-25T06:39:00.011-04:00

$VIX is at critical juncture right now, bears watching. It was up 9.3% on Friday (was up 15% at one point) and it in conjunction with market action will determine if we break through the bottom of the support line or if we go up. A turn up here means 1280 ES, a break means back to test 1254, then possibly 1244, then even lower. Those yellow vertical lines are timing bands, a break now would be early relative to those, they usually drag this out for a bit longer.

Comment Cleaner

2011-05-24T12:10:00.001-04:00

Nothing but just comment cleaner.

This is me riding over the weekend with my group. You can subscribe to my youtube channel to view more videos.

Enjoy!!

Dollar hitting a downtrend TL here!

2011-05-06T13:35:00.003-04:00

Dollar with this pop is hitting the resistance here, if you are long take profit. With this move EUR/USD is now setting up for a nice bounce towards 1.50 area. I am staying long on /M6E

There is a possibility for dollar to break this TL and fill the open gap at 75.26. If not we should expect to head back down. Dollar weakness is not yet over. It has more room to drop then pop.

Cheers!!

Game plan for Dollar and Euro

2011-04-19T15:14:00.002-04:00

Here's my game for Dollar and Euro. Currently long Dollar average price 75.31
Short /M6E average price 1.4317.

Following chart explains all. Possible H&S pattern on Euro should get us around 1.41XX level.

Where we could stall and head back up or drop below. In any case I am planning to take off /DX at 75.615 and /M6E @ 1.4232 and go long at the same price with tight stop at 1.4200 even.

These are hard stop just to be safe if euro decides to drop further towards 1.40 area.

Currently I don't have stop on /DX long or /M6E short. I will see hows it acting overnight and apply my stops.

CheerS!!

ES weekly chart pointing for a pull back

2011-04-13T09:32:00.004-04:00

GLD a possible H&S pattern watch out if this play out we can see GLD around 138 but we have big support around $140 so keep an eye on GLD

Good morning guys,

Hope everyone is doing good, here's my latest chart on /ES. weekly chart with RSI, MACD and SS all pointing for a pull back. Not expecting any flash crash or anything but a possible pull back check out the flag on weekly /ES

I am still holding my /M6E short and expecting 1.4250 area before any further upside on Euro. Will either short /DX or go long on /M6E at 1.4250 area.

Cheers!!

Don't forget to set your stops.

YTD performance vs. No BS, No game

2011-04-06T09:08:00.004-04:00

Good morning people,

Here's my year to date performance from actual trading, there is no BS here. This tracks my actual portfolio and it speaks for itself. I am not going to say Oh I can do this or look at my this or that trade, but simply showing you the real picture. The real picture is if you stick to your trading rules you can beat the market even with small account (started with $2,500)

I am slacking on my charts as I am extremely busy lately. I post all my trades on twitter and on comment section but no time to explain why!!

Anyways, this is to show you my YTD performance and make a new comment cleaner post. Going forward I am planning to post YTD and if possible Monthly performance.

I make a new post with charts soon! Very soon!! ;-)

Cheers!!

Support and Resistance vs. Charts

2011-03-16T21:26:00.006-04:00

JASO is showing a clear IHS on 1hr chart, If this set up works as expected it will take JASO around $8.20 area. Keep an eye on this. I am currently long JASO and will plan to exit out around 8.20 or write some calls.

Here's my updated chart for /DX and why I am still holding my long with loss!
/DX got pushed down big time but still holding the trendline, if broken I will consider I am wrong and take my loss and move to next trade.

Many times we will see that people see big profit on their account but it's all paper profit and with big move all that paper profit is gone and they panic and close the trade taking realized loss.

If my analysis are correct my paper loss will turn into realize gain soon. Cheers!!

If you are not able to hold on to this type of paper loss I suggest you don't take trades like this.

Good Evening people,

I know I am slacking in my chart updates but I am very occupied lately, Anyways, I am also not giving you the status on my portfolio. I will try to keep up with that on daily basis.

Here's where I stand,

Starting Amount = $2,500
Current Balance = $3,052
Previous Balance = $3,633.66
Difference from Last update = -$581.66
P/L since start = $552
Target $5,000 by end of 2011

Not what I wanted to see but as we all know we can't win on every trade. The damage to portfolio is obviously came from my today's USD/JPY long but also from KGC, AONE and LVS calls.

JASO is still in red but I have added shares and not options.
I am so happy that I closed my F and FSLR calls with decent profit but what got washed in USD/JPY trade.

I am currently long /DX and I am anticipating 77.40 level on /DX before any major breakdown or breakout.

Here are different charts I am tracking with support and resistance level.

Still holding my EUR/USD and EUR/NZD short

2011-03-03T20:25:00.003-05:00

I know my entry might be little early but I am still holding EUR/USD & EUR/NZD shorts.

Here are my charts to support my position. So far no hard stops but I will be watching these position for any major push to the upside.

Market anticipation based on charts

2011-03-01T18:36:00.009-05:00

Good evening,

Here are the charts I wanted to post over the weekend but I am glad I am posting today after the surprise red Monday close on wall st.

KGC is holding it's short term TL, My current long position is still able to play out well.

Gold and Dollar, on daily gold chart we are over bought, I am expecting profit taking and a possible down side move but not a big drop. I suggest to trim down your longs on Gold.

Dollar I am watching, it is holding the previous support but at this time i am not taking long position on dollar. I need a confirmation before I go long on USD

FSLR my fib set up on it. I am taking a big hit on FSLR currently but so far it looks it has more down side before it start rallying. I could be wrong but charts says otherwise. I am holding on my long as I have April calls but it will be slow bleeding for me. 50% support is where I will add some more calls with stop at 61.8%

Here's weekly chart of FSLR to get better picture

/ES broke an important long term TL. I am expecting more downside on /ES. If you want to play futures, I suggest short 2 contracts of /ES and hedge it with 1 contract of /NQ long.

This should play out well for you, if /ES drops you can close your /NQ long and ride with /ES short. If market plays otherwise you will be hedged and limit your loss as /NQ will lead the way to the upside.

Weekly SPX chart, still in uptrend but a possible pull back is expected. As far as SPX holds the trend line, I see 1400 easily in couple of months.

Finally LVS, after the news got hammered big time but still TLs are working fine. Found support on the short term TL and I am expecting a bounce back soon, I personally think today's action was an overreaction to the news. There is a possibility that big boys are adding this one to their long position.

That's all for tonight, Over all market still has room to go down but I am not expecting any flash crash. A healthy pull back is always there before in bull market.

Market outlook to the downside,
Hand pick stocks should play out better to the upside.
Short the market and go long on stocks, this way you will balance your portfolio and limit your loss.

Forget about the end results which is profit, concentrate on the path to the end result and that is limit your loss.

Good night! See you cats tomorrow.

TW over and out.

Current holdings

2011-02-28T09:58:00.002-05:00

Good morning,

Here's my current holdings

Long EUR/USD @ 1.3836

LONG:

SLW
FSLR,
LVS,
NFLX,
SDS,
C (Shares)
CPOW
JASO
KGC
LVLT
OREX

Short:

PCLN
QQQQ
SSO
C (selling call options)

Monday's are 9 out of 10 are up days, I am still sitting on 45% cash. Just playing small and safe.

Charts to be follow tonight, sorry was busy over the weekend to post any charts.

Cheers!!

/ES up from the support level.

2011-02-24T10:42:00.007-05:00

***Trading Alert***

closed BP $48/50 vertical call spread @ $0.80 33.33% profit
Long FSLR by April Vertical calls $165/170 for $1.45

=====================================================

***Trading Alert***

Covered 25% EUR/USD short @ 1.3766
Working order to cover another 25% @ 1.3732
Covered GBP/USD short @ 1.60855

==================================================================

Here's /ES chart with price line and treandline where it's getting support. If we get bounce here I am pretty sure there is a possible short squeeze coming.

I will post details of current holding and P/L chart over the weekend. Too occupied at work.

/DX on weekly support will it hold?

2011-02-23T10:36:00.005-05:00

***Trade Alert***

Shorted PCLN Via Credit call spread $ $480/$485. Credit $150.00

Added to my EUR/USD short @ 1.37746

==================================================================

Trade alert

Shorted EUr/USD @ 1.375080

/DX is right on the support line if it holds it will bounce from here. If not will take loss and close EUR/USD.

KGC & POT for Long position & EUR/USD

2011-02-17T14:20:00.010-05:00

***Trade Alert***

Long NFLX with March 230/235 vertical calls. for $1.75

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***Trade Alert***

Out of NFLX put spread with $100 profit.

Closed my GLD 136/140 spread at $1.75

Closed my FAS credit spread at $0.31

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***Trade Alert***

Closed 50% EUR/USD long at 1.3705

***Trade Alert***

Fliped EUR/USD short into long now long from 1.3625

============================================================

***Trade Alert***

Over night I closed 50% of my EUR/USD @ 1.3578. now riding with only last 25%.

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***Trade Alert***

SLW Jan 2012 $40/$50 vertical call spread for $2.60

Amazing risk/ rewards.

==============================================================

KGC is on long term support line, I took long position right before close yesterday. I see it touching $20 price area pretty soon. I have March $17 calls I am expecting by end of march KGC should trade around $18.50 or so. Risk/Reward on this trade is excellent.

POT is another potential candidate for long position. I see a possible pull back in POT around $175 area. As you can see in the weekly chart I will get a long term support around $175 area.

I am currently short EUR/USD and my target is 1.33. If EURO holds the support at 1.33 then it could go either way.

I will update you on any trades I am watching NFLX to fill the open gap around $231. Possible exit area for my spread.

Cheers!!

Thanks,

T Waffle

Long BP and JASO

2011-02-15T09:08:00.004-05:00

***Trade Alert***

FAS vertical credit spread March $36/38 calls sold @ $0.48
CLOSED 25% EUR/USD @ 1.3582

=================================================
***Trade Alert***

Shorted EUR/USD @ 1.36052

***Trade Alert***

Shorted EUR/USD @ 1.35663

===========================================

***Trade Alert***

Long KGC via $17 March call. for $0.65

This is not a earnings play, I like the chart and that's why I am long.

===============================

***Trade Alert***

Long JASO $8.10
Long BP $48/50 April Vertical Calls for $0.60

EUR/USD and GBP/USD closed

2011-02-08T11:13:00.004-05:00

GLD ***Trade Alert***

Closed Feb GLD $132 calls for $2.10 nice profit here people 10.55% profit.

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***Trade Alert***

Closed GBP/USD @ 1.6090
Closed EUR/USD @ 1.3660

Not comfortable with the move in EURO and GBP at the moment, also I won't be able to trade for the rest of the week. I am cashing my profit here.

Still holding my OREX and GLD longs here. I see more upside on these two.

Cheers!!

AAPL short closed! Playing safe

2011-02-03T10:22:00.007-05:00

Starting Balance = $2,500
Previous day's balance = $3,633.66
Current Balance = $3,647.47
One day P/L = $13.81
Net P/L= $1,147.47

No Trade today, just holding what I have.

===============================================================
Over all a good day, ended the day in green so I am all happy. I will see you all Sunday night or Monday morning.

Starting Balance = $2,500
Previous day's balance = $3,580.59
Current Balance = $3,633.66
One day P/L = $53.07
Net P/L= $1,133.66

=======================================

***Trade Alert***

Short GBP/USD @ 1.63133

=================================

Starting Balance = $2,500
Previous day's balance = $3,273.73
Current Balance = $3,580.59
One day P/L = $306.86
Net P/L= $1,089.59

Long Gold and EUR/USD short is working out well. New trades are also acting as expected.

Over all very good day! I will see you guys tomorrow with new charts and trade alerts.

Cheers!!

Here's why I closed my AAPL short! Chart explains it better. It's always better to play safe. I am happy with my profit, after all profit is profit.

Here's monthly GLD chart to show how the set up is working out in past months, look at the circled area how after every red month we get rally, similar set up in current run.

That's all for now I will update you all when I make any changes to my current position.

Cheers!!

Current Holdings

2011-02-01T16:25:00.013-05:00

***Trade Alert***

Long OREX @ $2.83
Closed AAPL Short with nice 50% profit!!
===================================

***Trade Alert***

GLD April 136/140 Vertical CAll spread @ $0.79

==================================

GLD buy area two different support on weekly chart

***Trade Alert***

Closing 25% more EUR/USD short @ 1.3783

Starting Balance = $2,500
Current Account balance = $3,273.73
Net P/L= $773.73

==================================

***Trade Alert***

Closing 25% EUR/USD at 1.3783.

Good morning!!

My current holdings:

Short NFLX @ $211.00
Short AAPL @ $344.50
Short EUR/USD @ 1.3801
Short SSO March $50/49 Put vertical spread @ $0.35
Long SDS June 25/26 Vertical Call Spread @ $0.25
Long GLD Feb $132.00 Calls
/DX at support expecting bounce here if not I will close my EUR/USD short.

Good luck everyone!

I am BACK!!!!

2011-02-01T16:17:00.001-05:00

I hope everyone is doing great; I am back after much needed break! I am ready to post my analysis and tread once again. This past 2yrs been great to me, I managed to change my trading style and the end results are great.

I am going to stick to my small account trading strategy so I can help with those who are playing with small balance account.

One of my accounts I have $2500 and I am going to post my trades from that account. Entry and Exits for all my stocks, options, FOREX and futures.

No future trading in this account just now. My target to turn this account balance to $5000, good luck to me!

Cheers!!

Line in sand for Bulls and Bears

2009-12-10T09:00:00.010-05:00

***Trade Alert***

Long SPY $111/$113 Jan 2010 call spread @ $0.90 100% hedge play nothing else.
Long RINO $30/$35 Jan 2010 Call spread @ $1.00 Strong company. Should give nice return.

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***Trade Alert***

FAS short via 70/68 jan 2010 put spread @ $0.95

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Here's the RIMM chart and my reason to take Short on RIMM.

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***Trade Alert***

Closed AMZN 135/140 Call spread @ $2.10

Closed USO 36/38 call spread @ $0.75

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***Trade Alert***
Shorted RIMM 60/55 Jan 2010 Vertical PUT Spread @ $1.38
================================================
Good morning,

Yesterday was really interesting day. We went long AAPL in the morning and AMZN & USO at the close. Now we are standing in the middle of the road thinking which is the right way? Well here's what I have in mind. First of all I balanced my portfolio with longs and shorts, the weight is 50% long and 50% short. On ES we have an unfilled gap at 1104 (chart below) which means we can target ES to run up from open to fill the gap at 1104-1105 area. Once the gap is filled we can either have a trend day or pull back and go sideways.

In any case, we need to keep the following numbers in mind. On either fib set up if 61.8% retracement is broken it will give us a clear picture of the next move. Which in past months is to the upside. If you look at the chart before OPEX we have a nice drop and during OPEX we put new highs. Keeping same thing in mind I see higher probability of moving north and print new highs around 1134-1132 area. May be even 1140+ it all depends.

One of our regular reader just pointed me to SCO and it sure does look an interesting setup. SCO broke out of the descending wedge with high volume. I did long-term and short-term trendlines and it looks bullish to me. On pull back a long position on SCO can give you a nice hand to hedge your long equities. As we speak the inverse relation between Dollar and equities is narrowing. Dollar and equities both could rally while Gold and crude could drop. Keeping all possibilities in mind design your portfolio where you can take an advantage of up or down side.

One more possibility is that we could see Equities and Dollar marching upside while Gold and Crude could fall. Why? As I mentioned before we need strong dollar for investors to invest in US bonds. No one would invest into US bonds if the dollar is weak. So they will pump the dollar no matter what. While they are pumping the dollar they could keep equities higher which means take profit from Gold and crude and invest in equities. Once again this is my early morning mental masterbasion so don't go crazy. Just writing what pops in my mind.

Disconnection in the market.

2009-12-09T08:25:00.010-05:00

Intraday Update:

Everything is down today except NQ. As you can see Dollar, Euro, Crude, Gold and futures everything is red. This is why I remind you guys to keep it small a week before OPEX and even smaller during OPEX week.

======================================================================
Good morning,

I hope you guys were able to take profit on your short position yesterday. As we speak of the weakness in the market I do see a disconnection in the market between the inverse relation of Dollar and SPX. While Dollar was having a trend-day all indexes were off their early lows.

I do see weakness in the market but the drop in Gold, Crude vs. bounce in DXY should have pushed the equities further down. Instead indexes were showing some support at those levels.

Now I can give you my expectation and targets here but what's the use if I don't post any chart which make sense to you? So as usual here are my charts.

For those who are not comfortable with options or looking for a little longer term holding can start scaling into AAPL shares. You can add at current level next lot at the retest of $180 and final lot at $175 with stop at $170. I would set the target for profit taking starting from $205 up to $208 and/or new highs.

Oh no! I am trading shares now! does that mean I am copying the entire world who is trading shares? LOL!!

SPY broke the trendline and now trader around it. I have the fib set up which is giving me the target of 107.70 range based on the previous up move. the 107.70 area is a 50% retracement of the up move. now the key level is the 61.8% which should be the line in sand and any break and close below it will give us more down side on SPY. Here's the chart.

Now if your approach is bearish here's the set up on SPY

Here's the Gold and Dollar chart. Where you can see there was a minor pull back in Dollar over night but we did not make lower lows. In-fact, we have higher highs. Dollar's previous resistance of 76.25 should act as a support now and the target on Dollar now is 78 and change. Which should act as resistance before we break and close above it.

ES at 50% retracement

2009-12-08T08:39:00.004-05:00

A big buying in VIX out of the money this means a big pull back in SPX. Watch the video. Also market is dropping here but we need new lows to confirm this down move. If no new lows expect a bounce either later today or tomorrow.

=======================================================
Good morning,

Futures are down today morning due to 3M report. ES currently trading at 1093 and so far its bouncing off from 1092 which is a 50% retrecement of the up move from the previous lows to recent highs.

If ES finds support at 1092 today it's likely to melt up to new highs around 1130-1128 range. I suggest you take some of your shorts off the table at open and let the rest run to see if we break the 1087 on ES.

I still expect it could break the 1087 levels but it's better to book some profit and hold your other half that way the trade becomes free-ride for you.

Stay tuned for intra-day market updates.

Riding the wave.

2009-12-07T10:07:00.004-05:00

UPDATE: 11:55 AM Expecting next leg down.

===================================================================================
Good morning,

Get ready as we are approaching our trading time.I know market starts at 9:30 but our trading starts at well you know when.

Here's the play I am taking as I think market is not able to attract buyers at the current levels. I see more profit taking on any bounce. So going with a Vertical Put spread on IWM ($60/$57)

If /ES is not able to put new highs by 10:30 we can expect more downside on the market. If we bust new highs you we have to scratch the trade. As we may get whipsaw for couple of days.

Surprise Surprise Surprise.

2009-12-03T09:25:00.002-05:00

Good morning guys,

I hope everyone is done fine. As you know I did the live webcast yesterday and it turned out to be a great success. I am very happy for everyone’s support. I did get an amazing email response with lot of questions. Few people wanted to do one-on-one mentoring session too.

Based on the response I have decided to do a live trading hours webcast. Yes! You heard it right. I will be doing live trading tomorrow 12/04/2009 to show you how to time the market how to enter/exit the trade. I will be doing live webcast from 9:00 AM to 12:30 PM and from 2:30 PM to 4:30 PM

As for the one-on-one mentoring session I am giving you all an introductory price of $30.00/hr or $120 for 5hrs. Whichever suits your needs. I am collection a lot of information on options trading from a basic understanding to advance techniques. That is still in process so for now I haven’t decided when I will be able to start doing it.

Once again I really appreciate all your great emails and response. It came to my attention the donation link I posted wasn’t working so you can simply use the donation button on this blog and donate whatever amount you are comfortable with.

I need to prepare few things for tomorrows trading so I will catch you guys later today.

Cheers!!

Watch live streaming video from tradingsigns at livestream.com

Market View Charts!

2009-12-01T20:33:00.004-05:00

Good Evening,

I hope everyone is able to trade and make money in this crazy market. Today I did a livestream and with your help it was a great success. During the livestream I presented my market views to track the market direction and time my entry and exits. Few people requested me to post the charts of what I track during market hours. So here it is what I have to track the market.

$UVOL+$UVOL/Q+$UVOA-$DVOA-$DVOL-$DVOL/Q
$TICK
SOX
DTX
VIX
EUR/USD
$ADVN-$DECN
$TRIN
BKX
TBT
XOI
$DXY

XLB, XLI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLK, XLF, XLV, VIX, SPY, IWM,

I will be doing live webcast at http://livestream.com/tradingsigns
Every week Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Please join me at http://livestream.com/tradingsigns

Good night.

Wednesday Bed time story.

2009-11-18T20:16:00.007-05:00

Story time guys,

Few months back I was discussing on one private blog about follow the money. Now only if we are on top wall st. I-bank we would know where the money is flowing. This cycle works from equity to bonds, from bonds to commodities, from commodities to dollar. Currently everyone wants to jump the gun on Gold.

Let’s rewind a year back wasn’t everyone running behind Oil last year around the same time? Calling Oil to bust higher than $200? Did we reach there?

I don’t think so. Media is our worst enemy; they are nothing but puppets of Wall st. and Government. Those who got the mullah can make them say anything. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on CNBC is suggesting buying gold with target price of $2000. Heck Goldman Sucks last year gave statement that Oil will reach $200+ then they were busy selling it to others.

Simple rule of life “If you are buying it someone is selling it” I have the same feeling that when Goldman sucks comes out and gives this bold statement about Gold they are ready to dump their stake at high price to late suckers. Those who follow CNBC, Goldman Sucks, and Warren will eventually lose. These sons of guns never care about you or general public. All they care about money. Stock market is source of income for general public but for wall st. it’s a play ground.

They like to play with your money can bank their pockets with hefty bonuses.

Anyways, following are the charts I want to bring to your attention.

AAPL good candidate for short. As far as AAPL stays below $208 it will retest the $190 or even $185 area. If we cross $208 the upside potential is $220.00

POT great candidate for Long play. The weekly chart shows a target of $125 but I would wait for a pull back to get long on POT. Possible retest of $105-$107 where I would take long with target price of $125.00

SRS Great candidate for Long play. Nearing bottom still got some room to drop but not much. Once it start heading up $11-$12 mark will be easily achieved.

$SPX and $NDX charts to show near every OPEX we put new high and retrace back. I also calculated numbers on $SPX on up move and down move. As we are in OPEX week we will give one final Push to the upside possibly tomorrow and star rolling down next week. A possible 60 points pull back will give us 1065 where we should take long assuming we will run higher another 80-90 points to 1150 area.

That’s all for tonight ladies. I will see you guys tomorrow.

This is one of my fav. Speech. Enjoy!!!

"It's not how hard you hit, it's how hard you get hit and keep moving forward."

Cheers!!

Bed Time Story

2009-11-16T21:31:00.007-05:00

Another “GREEN” finish by $INDU making new high for 2009. A very bullish trend in the market, is it really? We are closing the end of 2009 and my expectation is no major drop in market at least not until we step into 2010. Now don’t take my word for it as I don’t work with either Brother Ben or those greedy wall st. bustards. You can call this my mental masturbation. My expectation is we will slowly melt higher with a possible pull back around 1070-1065 area on $SPX. Once we step into 2010 we will trade in certain range possibly 1130-1080 till March 2010. Once those long terms (30yr) bonds will mature in 2010 March we will face the reality. What is reality? Well we borrowed money from Asia to buy Mercedes, Jaguar, Ferrari, Million dollar mansions to get into some hookers pants. At the end we did all than and realize we don’t have money to pay back. So what we do? We run to those Asians who we (American) think are working hard and saving money for us for another loan. .

Hello! Remember me? I borrowed all your saved money with promise to pay you back in March 2010?

Asian: Yes!

Well, we’ve got problem, I don’t have it to pay you back but I have a fantastic idea.

Asian: what is that?

You can lend me some more money so I can pay you back the first loan and I will pay you back this loan in installments.

Asian: Humm! What do you have as guarantee?

Well! Our dollar is worth less than Charmin, Most of our companies are bankrupt or taken over by foreigners. We don’t have savings as well as we don’t manufacture anything. But we can guarantee that we will spend everything on “Made is China” & “Made in India” Well you make them right? You gotta sell it to someone right? Well I am you guy, sell it to me. I will buy all your stuff from your money which you are going to lend me. J

Now if you are an Asian what would you answer?

Now here are the charts I want to share with you. This week will be painful so keep it small as its OPEX week.

Market Expectations for November 12, 2009

2009-11-12T10:03:00.007-05:00

ES is near it's topping zone and next week is OPEX so this topping zone will be chopping both bears and bulls.

I am keeping it very small here as I don't want to get frustrated and get myself in this chopping.

Good luck.... Stay either on sideline or keep it very small.

LOL!! That didn't take long.. here's the updated chart 1098.50 is broken now I am expecting more upside and possible new highs.

ES did not make new high today (So far) below are the charts to consider this as bearish tape. with line in sand 1098.50 if at any moment of the day before 4:00 PM we break 1098.50 we could get new highs.

If we respect the 50% RL and hit our -23.6% we could expect to put new lows around 1088

***Trade Alert***

Short QLD via Vertical PUT spread (Long Dec $52.00 Puts / Short Dec $50.00 Puts) @ $0.55

Max possible profit $1.45

263% Return

Long PALM Via Vertical Call spread (Long DEC $14.00 call Short $16.00 calls) @ $0.37

Max possible profit $1.60 400% return.

Short STI Via Vertical PUT Spread (Long Dec $20.00 PUT Short $18.00 PUT) @ 0.55

Max possible profit @ $1.45

263% return.

Short ES Via Vertical PUT Spread (Long Dec $1095 Put short $1090 PUT) @ 2.00

Do you see what I see?

2009-11-05T08:33:00.003-05:00

UPDATE: 12:30 PM

This bounce could be a nice bull trap so keep this possibility in mind and watch this levels as on 5 min ES is showing a possible H&S and it could drop and fill the gap.

If you are long I would certainly suggest you to start scaling out.

Good luck.

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Good morning people,

Ahh what a wonderful morning and what a wonderful day. LOL nothing new it's just my B'day today. Today I say my good byes to 20s and Say hello to 30s.

Yes I turned 30 today. And to celebrate that I want ES to rally to 1065 today.

Anyways, here's my chart of the day. I hope you guys see what I see on the chart.

Target on ES around 1064-1066 area. we could get an initial drop to fill the gap and then rally back up. With unemployment report I don't see us dropping all the way to 1038-1039 area but those are the key levels to watch. If ES break 1037 we are clearly heading towards 1011-1008 area.

Same expectation for TF a bounce to 580 area.

Good luck and here's the song for you to enjoy.

Market Expectations for November 04, 2009

2009-11-04T09:16:00.004-05:00

Good Morning,

Today's going to be a fun ride as we have a lot of new kicking into the market and mother of all news is FOMC

Whatever you trade I suggest you keep it small.

As you can see SPX is trading on that new channel and could bounce back to 1070 area before it resumes it's down trend. ES also shows a possible retest of 1069.50 a 50% retracement of this entire down move.

Today it could be a trend day to the upside or a very choppy killing both Bulls and Bears and for that reason I am planning to keep my trading limited and small size lots.

Today should be fun to watch from sideline

Good luck.

Enjoy the song...

Quick Test and Portfolio Update 11/03/09

2009-11-03T19:35:00.007-05:00

As I was on vacation I didn't get a chance to give you the update on the portfolio. Here's the portfolio performance as of today. Most of them are closed positions.

As I have two open positions and they are short STEC and KIRK. KIRK I am pretty much flat but STEC is giving me a killing return, I am short from $40.00 and currently in after hours its trading at $15.79 which will give me an amazing return. Mostly I am going to close it tomorrow. Those who are holding STEC short I suggest you to protect your profit.

That's all for tonight see you guys tomorrow morning.

Market Expectations for November 03, 2009

2009-11-03T08:13:00.006-05:00

Good morning team,

I hope you guys are read for some bounce here to add to your core short position. As you can see over night futures pulled back but did not take out yesterday's lows. Basically ES found support around 1026 and bounced back. based on that I have follow charts and market expectation. Market should bounce from here to 1070-1080 area but is should not go higher than 1080 range to keep this downtrend in place. SPX is showing a possible H&S pattern which could give us a drop from 1080 to 970 area.

With the new that India purchased 20 ton of gold from IMF I expect gold to bounce and dollar should pull back but it should hold the 75.60 area.

ES found support around 1026 and should get decent bounce as shorts will take profit to reload at higher level.

Enjoy this song...

Why Options? Part-2

2009-11-02T18:35:00.004-05:00

Here's the Part -2 of "Why Options?"

If you miss the part - 1 CLICK HERE.

Intrinsic Value and Time Value in Stock Options

A stock option's total value consists of two components: intrinsic value and time value. Options will only have intrinsic value if they are in-the-money. The intrinsic value of an in-the-money option is equal to the difference between the option's strike price and the current value of the underlying stock. For example, if IBM is trading at 69.20, an IBM May 65 call will have an intrinsic value of 4.20 (69.20 - 65 = 4.20), and an IBM May 70 put will have an intrinsic value of 0.80 (70 – 69.20 = 0.80). Obviously, the deeper a stock option is in the money, the higher the intrinsic value will be.

Any value in an option above its intrinsic value is time value. Time value is calculated by subtracting intrinsic value from total value. Continuing with our example from above, if the IBM May 65 call has a premium of 7.80 with an intrinsic value of 4.20, the time value will be 3.60 (7.80 – 4.20). If the May 70 put has a total value of 3.80 with a 0.80 intrinsic value, the time value will be 3 (3.80 – 0.80 = 3). The more time a stock option has remaining until expiration, the higher its value will be since additional time improves the chances that the option will make the desired move.

Converting a Coca-Cola April 75 Call Into Option Symbol KODO

Seeing a stock option listed as a Coca-Cola April 75 call, you may easily recognize that the Coca-Cola call expires in April and has a strike price of 75. An option listed as KODO, however, may not immediately relay to you the same information even though KODO is the option symbol for the Coca-Cola April 75 call.

Converting an option into its option symbol is quite simple if you know how, and probably the best way to learn how is to work through an example. To avoid confusion, let's continue with our Coca-Cola example:

1. The first step is to list the underlying stock's ticker symbol. In this case Coca-Cola's ticker is "KO." The option symbol ticker may be no longer than three letters and can be as short as one. For over-the-counter stocks with more than three letters in the stock code, the option ticker symbol will be shortened to three letters, usually ending in "Q." For example, Microsoft Corp.'s stock ticker is MSFT which is shortened to "MSQ" for its option ticker.
Step 1 Results = KO

2. The next element is a letter designating the month of the option's expiration date and indicating whether the option is a call or a put. Each expiration month has a separate code for both calls and puts (see Table 1 below). In our example, an April call is represented by the letter "D" whereas an April put would be denoted with a "P."
Step 1 Results + Step 2 Results = KOD

Table 1: Expiration Month
Month	Call Code	Put Code
January	A	M
February	B	N
March	C	O
April	D	P
May	E	Q
June	F	R
July	G	S
August	H	T
September	I	U
October	J	V
November	K	W
December	L	X

3. The final element in the option symbol is the option's strike price. The strike price letter is the same for both calls and puts (see Table 2 below) In our example, the strike price indicator is the letter "O". The letter "O" corresponds to the strike price of $75/share (or, in other cases, $175 for a stock that is trading near the $175/share range).
Step 1 Results + Step 2 Results + Step 3 Results = KODO

Table 2: Strike Price Symbol
Code	Striking	Prices	Code	Striking	Prices
A	5	105	N	70	170
B	10	110	O	75	175
C	15	115	P	80	180
D	20	120	Q	85	185
E	25	125	R	90	190
F	30	130	S	95	195
G	35	135	T	100	200
H	40	140	U	7.5	37.5
I	45	145	V	12.5	42.5
J	50	150	W	17.5	47.5
K	55	155	X	22.5	52.5
L	60	160	Y	27.5	57.5
M	65	165	Z	32.5	62.5

Following this three step process is an easy way to convert options into their option symbols. For easy access, you may want to either bookmark this page or print it out to use Tables 1 and 2 as quick references.

How Stocks and Stock Options Differ

Unlike stocks, options have a limited life. If an expected move does not immediately occur, a stock investor can say, "I'll give it another week." This is not always true with options trading. Each option has a set expiration date. At expiration, an option is either worth the difference between its strike price and the current stock price, or it's worthless.

There are a couple of key factors to keep in mind when dealing with the limited life of options. The first key factor is the understanding that an option's value depends on the ability to correctly predict both the direction and timing of a move in the price of the underlying stock. The first variable, direction, is easily understood. If the expectation is that the underlying stock price will go up but instead it goes down, the investor loses money. (However, an options investor could earn money if the expectation is that the underlying stock price will drop and the price does drop.) The second key variable in options trading is the timing of the direction. For instance, the holder (buyer) of a Dun & Bradstreet May 35 call is guaranteed the right to buy 100 shares of the stock at $35 per share at any time before the option's May expiration, even if the stock rallies to $40, $50, or even $70 per share. However, it costs more to pay for a July 35 call than a May 35 call, because of the additional time, and therefore, improved likelihood, that the stock will rally above the price of $35 per share.

Dividends are another key difference between stock and option trading. Dividends do not represent a change in value to the holder of a stock, because the stock price moves down approximately the same value as the dividend paid to the shareholder. This is not true in options. An option does not give the holder the right to receive a dividend. Thus, when a dividend is paid and the stock subsequently falls, an option holder bears the full brunt of the dividend paid. While this is a negative characteristic for a holder of a call option, the holder of a put option, who is betting the stock will go down anyway, actually gains from this occurrence. Of course, the options market anticipates the impact of upcoming dividends and tends to discount for this effect just before the dividend is paid. Remember, an option does not give the holder ownership rights, voting rights, or a share of the company; it entitles the owner to benefit only from the stock's price movement.

The Three Styles of Exercise Features

An option can have three different styles of exercise features: American, European, and Capped. An American contract may be exercised at any time before its expiration date. Most options, including equity options, are American-style.

A European contract is exercisable only on the expiration date, known as the settlement date. Options on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are examples of European-style options.

A Capped option gives you the right to exercise that option only during a specified period before its expiration, unless the option reaches the cap value prior to expiration, in which case the option is automatically exercised. Capped options are the least commonly used style of options in the United States.

8 Myths About Stock Options

For years, the options market was shrouded in mystery as transactions took place with obscure options dealers who set the prices and terms of options contracts. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) created "listed options" that became the standard, and option prices were set in an auction market nearly identical to the stock exchanges. For the first time, this allowed the option holder to choose to sell his contract on the open market before it expired.

Trading volume in listed options has exploded and option trading on more than 2,400 different equities and indices now accounts for the equivalent of 110 million shares of stock trading each day. But many of the myths associated with options have lingered. Unfortunately, these myths have caused many investors to remain on the sidelines while they could be utilizing options profitably or for reducing risk.

Myth #1:
90% of Options Expire Worthless.
This "statistic" is often bandied about by those who have no experience trading options. According to the CBOE, about 30% of all options expired worthless -- a far cry from 90%.

Myth #2:
Options are Much Riskier Than Stocks or Mutual Funds.
This assumes that the investor is trading options with the same amount of capital that he would devote to stocks or mutual funds. On a "dollar for dollar" basis, options are riskier. Here at Schaeffer's Investment Research, we never recommend trading options in this manner. Instead we show our subscribers that options are a cheap way to reduce their overall risk. How? First, by limiting their total dollar exposure to a fraction of what they would invest in stocks or mutual funds. Second, by diversifying their options portfolio among different underlying equities. And third, by purchasing both call and put options, since put options are profitable when the underlying stock declines in prices.

Myth #3:
Option Sellers Make Profits at the Expense of Option Buyers.
Unlike the gambling casino (or the lottery or the race track) which has built-in percentage advantages for the "house," option trading is a "zero sum game" in which option sellers and buyers are always at a standoff in total. Option buying and selling differ only in the distribution of their outcomes, not in their relative profitability. Although option buyers can have more losing than winning trades, they never lose more than their original investment and their profit potential is unlimited. Option sellers profit most of the time but their potential losses are unlimited. Schaeffer's Investment Research has always been dedicated to maximizing profit potential through option buying -- by taking full advantage of the unlimited profit potential and limited risk of this strategy.

Myth #4
The Big Losses in the 1987 Crash Were Suffered by Option Buyers.
The big losses in the 1987 crash were suffered by those who sold put options. The unfortunate put sellers in 1987 experienced losses of such great magnitude that many of them could not meet their obligations. Many put option buyers, on the other hand, scored big profits in 1987.

Myth #5
Options are Too Complicated.
Nonsense! Anyone who is familiar with stocks can easily learn how to trade options. The approach to option trading that we use at Schaeffer's Investment Research is very simple. If we are bullish on a stock, we advise you to buy a call option on that stock. For a fraction of the underlying stock price, you "rent" any appreciation in the stock above a particular price for a specified time. If we are bearish on a stock, we advise you to buy a put option. Here you "rent" any decline in the underlying stock below a particular price for a specified time. It's that simple!

Myth #6
Stockbrokers Don't Understand Options and are not Interested in Options Business.
While this may have been a problem 10 years ago, the brokerage landscape has significantly changed for the better. A number of brokerage firms now specialize exclusively in options. Many large discount brokers have become "option trader friendly." Some traditional full-service firms have developed expertise in options and the desire for options business.

Myth #7
You can't Beat the "Option Pricing Model."
Since options are a "zero-sum game," and option prices are based upon a mathematical "option pricing model," some say it is impossible to profit from buying options in the long run. WE STRONGLY DISAGREE. First, prices for exchange-listed options are set in the marketplace by buyers and sellers, although the computerized pricing models do exert a strong influence. But more importantly, these models are based upon the mistaken assumption that all stock price movement is "random." Clearly, there are always certain stocks that are moving in well-defined price trends, as opposed to moving randomly. If you can identify those stocks whose price trends are likely to continue, you can beat the option pricing model! Much of our research has been devoted to developing indicators to determine stocks that will continue moving in such price trends, so our subscribers can profit from buying undervalued options on these stocks.

Myth #8
Options Trading Requires Too Much Time.
Amateurs are rarely successful trading options because they don't have the time, information, expertise or the discipline to compete in this fast-moving market. But Schaeffer's Investment Research subscribers have a big edge over these amateurs. First, our staff of professionals here at Schaeffer's Investment Research have the information and expertise to make you a successful options trader. And second, we give you the disciplined trading rules that help you make big money and also minimize your time commitment to your options trading! We tell you how much to pay, when, and at what price to sell.

A Brief History of Stock Options

On April 26, 1973, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) opened and traded the first standardized, exchange-listed equity option. Although the CBOE listed only call options on 16 underlying stocks, a revolutionary new financial instrument had been created. The CBOE traded just over one million option contracts during the first year.

To help insure the stability and integrity of the options market, the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) was also started in 1973. Composed of more than 135 Clearing Members, the OCC is the issuer and registered clearing facility for all exchange-listed securities options in the U.S.

Over the next few years, options became popular and other securities exchanges began entering the business. The American Stock Exchange and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange started trading options in 1975, and the Pacific Stock Exchange introduced option trading in 1976. In 1977, put options became exchange listed and expanded the benefits of options. On March 11, 1983, the CBOE transformed options trading when it introduced index options in the form of the S&P 100 Index. The New York Stock exchange joined the others and introduced option trading in June 1985. (Subsequently the New York Stock exchange sold its options business to the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1996.) In May 2000, the International Securities Exchange started trading options as the nation's first entirely electronic options market.

In response to the heavy interest in options, the Options Industry Council (OIC) was founded in 1992 by the nation's options exchanges. A non-profit organization, the OIC works to educate investors on the risks and rewards of options trading. Investors have access to free educational videos, software, brochures, and evening seminars through the organization.

As testimony to the popularity of options trading, options are available today on over 2,400 underlying securities and numerous indices and exchange-traded funds. In 2005, a record volume of more than 1.3 billion equity option contracts traded across the six exchanges, more than double the volume just five years earlier. This was the 13th year of increasing volume out of the past 14 years.

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Sounce - www.SchaeffersResearch.com

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Market Expectations for November 02, 2009

2009-11-02T08:13:00.008-05:00

Good morning everyone,

I hope everyone had great Halloween Weekend. I am all excited for this week to see what Ms. Market has to offer to us. Based on my daily ES chart I see a possible bounce to 1050 area before any meaningful drop.

I hope you guys took the FAZ trade I suggested. I had blast with my FAZ trade. Here's the look at my portfolio. You can see no activity during Oct as I was visiting my family back home for Diwali.

Here's the updated chart on FAZ

As my system generated a confirmed sell signal on Oct 29, I did a detailed research on the leading sector on this rally as if the trend is changed (which we should get the confirmation by this week) they will lead to the downside.

Leading sector in this rally is Paper, Insurance, Apparel, REIT, and ETFs.

To play safe I suggest you guys to trade contra ETFs.

List of Contra ETFs.

DUG DXD DZZ EDZ EEV ERY EUM EUO FAZ FXP GLL MZZ PSQ PST QID RSW RWM SCO SDS SH SKF SMN SPXU SRS SSG TBF TBT TWM TYP TZA ZSL

On Friday before close I went mostly cash as my major holdings were in November options. On my bounce I will start scaling into shorts. Mostly via contra ETFs.

Let's get our crash helmet ready as we should get the confirmation this week.

Cheers!!

Enjoy this song...

Market Expectations for October 30, 2009

2009-10-30T08:22:00.005-04:00

Good Morning gang,

I hope you all like the "Why Option?" post which I posted last night, I will be posting part-2 tonight. Here's my expectations for today, we expect ES to test the 50% of the down move @ 1068.50 but it should not break the 1075 area. Based on the trendline I don't want to see ES pushing higher 1068.00 if Bears can push ES down from 1068 we could take this as an change in trend to downside.

Long Candidate: FAZ

I like FAZ as we can see the breakout move. A clean breakout and today should give us more clear view. If you don't want to miss the up move on FAZ I have a nice option play for you.

FAZ Vertical Call Spread Buy Nov $23.00 call and sell Nov $25.00 calls for $0.30 if FAZ jumps to $25.00 before Nov. OPEX the potential reward is $1.70 about 567% ROI.

Another choice to short is GCI

Straight Puts is better than vertical spread.

Why Options? Part-1

2009-10-29T20:25:00.005-04:00

As an investor new to options trading, you likely have many questions on your mind about this alternative. You may have heard stories from friends, spoken to your broker, or are just intrigued to learn more.

The goal is to provide you solid, reliable and professional information about options trading in a straightforward manner so you can expand your understanding of this powerful tool. With understanding comes confidence. With confidence comes the power to positively affect the overall returns in your investment portfolio.

Why options? For three important reasons:

1. Limited dollar risk and limited dollar exposure

As an option buyer, you benefit from being able to control the movement in a stock for just a fraction of the cost of purchasing that stock. Plus, you can never lose more than this modest dollar amount. As a result, you can keep the bulk of your investment dollars in the safety of cash where it is immune to the wild and often scary swings in the market.

2. Leverage

You can achieve percentage gains from your successful options investments that are 5, 10, and even 20 times the gains achieved by stock or mutual fund investors.

3. Profit in Bull and Bear Markets Alike

This is certainly a claim that none of the traditional mutual fund families can make, and it is at the heart of why experienced options traders have profited in the volatile recent markets. By buying put options, you can achieve leveraged profits with limited dollar risk when a stock declines in price. Of course, leveraged gains can be achieved on bull moves by buying call options, but bull market profits comprise only half of the total options profit picture.

Your curiosity about options is matched by many others. In 2005, more than 1.5 billion options were traded, which is 65-percent greater than 2003 and more than doubles the volume of just five years earlier. In fact, every month in 2005 set a new record for option contract volume.

Getting Started With Stock Options

Stock options trading can be an exciting and profitable part of your investment portfolio. Before you start trading options, however, there are a few principles and characteristics of stock options that you will want to understand.

What you need to know:

Defining Stock Options
Distinguishing Between the Two Types of Stock Option Contracts
Exercising Stock Options
Realizing That Stock Options Expire
Understanding StrikePrices

Basic Option Trading Strategies:

The two most basic stock option trading strategies are buying calls and buying puts. Before progressing to any of the more complex options trading strategies, we recommend that you first have a good handle on these two.

Buying Calls
Buying Puts

Defining Stock Options

Stock options are investment instruments known as derivative securities. What that means is that each stock option derives its value from an actual stock or equity. In other words, a stock option's value is directly dependent on the price movement of its underlying security. For example, the value of Coca-Cola options are derived from 100 shares of Coca-Cola stock. Each option will have an underlying security.

Having established that stock options all have an underlying security, the next point to understand is that a stock option is a contract which represents the right to buy or sell shares of the underlying stock. Each contract generally represents 100 shares of the underlying stock, and there are no partial contracts. Options traders can own as few as one contract and as many contracts as their options trading capital will allow.

Buying a stock option contract does not obligate you to purchase or sell actual shares of the underlying stock. It only signifies that you have the right, or option, to buy or sell.

a stock option is a contract that gives its holder the right to buy or sell shares of an underlying security. The two types of stock options, calls and puts, determine whether the option holder's right is to buy or to sell the underlying shares at a designated price and within a designated period of time.

A call option is a contract giving its holder the right to purchase shares of the underlying stock. Purchasing a single Nike call option gives an option trader the right, but not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of Nike stock at a predetermined price during a specified period of time.

A put option is a contract giving its holder the right to sell shares of the underlying stock. It is not necessary for a stock options trader to own shares of a particular stock in order to buy a put option. If an options trader purchases a single General Motors put, he or she has the right, but once again not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of General Motors stock for a particular window of time and at a certain price.

In most cases, option holders do not choose to buy the shares associated with their call options, nor do they often sell the shares associated with their put options. Instead, they most often decide to resell their call and put options.

Exercising Stock Options

As a stock option holder, you are under no obligation either to buy the underlying shares as a call holder or to sell the underlying shares as a put holder. What, then, are your alternatives? There are three.

If you do elect to buy or sell the underlying shares of stock, that is known as exercising an option.
You may also elect to sell your option on the open market.
Or, your option may expire. If you choose neither to exercise your option nor to resell it, it may expire. But when an option expires, it loses all of its value.

Realizing That Stock Options Expire

All stock options have expiration dates. Expiration occurs for stock options on the third Friday of every month and each stock option is assigned an expiration month.

A stock option receives an expiration date upon its introduction to the market. The time period from when that option comes onto the market until its expiration usually spans about five months, although longer-term options exist which are available for up to two years or longer. Only during the time period from introduction through expiration may the stock option be bought, held, sold, or exercised.

For example, if you purchase a General Electric June call, GE must make the price move that you anticipated prior to expiration so that you can either resell or exercise the option for a profit on or before the third Friday in June. If, however, the GE shares do not move as you expected, you can sell your option at any time before expiration to cut your losses.

Understanding Strike Prices

The final component that all stock options contain and that you should understand is the strike price. The strike price is the price at which the underlying stock will be bought or sold if you exercise the stock option. Each option contract has a fixed strike price.

For example, if you purchase an Office Depot May 35 call, the strike price is 35. If the price of Office Depot, the underlying stock, reaches 35 on or before the third Friday in May, you may exercise your option and buy 100 shares of Office Depot for 35. Or, if you choose not to exercise, you may sell your option as long as you do so prior to or on its expiration date.

Buying Calls

Buying a call is the most basic options trading strategy that you can utilize when expecting an upwards price movement in a particular stock. There are many different methods for choosing an underlying security, but when you buy a call, you are essentially saying that you believe that the underlying stock's value will increase before the option's expiration date.

A couple of things to keep in mind when buying calls:

· Options closer to expiration will cost less but also have less time to make the desired price move.

· In-the-money options may be more expensive than out-of-the-money options, but out-of-the-money options have no intrinsic value, only time value.

Here's a hypothetical call buying scenario:
Let's say that today you're feeling fairly bullish about Anheuser-Busch (stock ticker symbol BUD). Whether your indicators stem from market analysis, a gut feeling, or talking lizards (in combination with a good deal of the company's product), they are telling you that although BUD is currently trading at 46.75, it will assuredly climb above 50 by June expiration, so you buy a BUD June 50 call (option symbol BUDFJ).

Now let's say that by the middle of May BUD is trading at 50.25. At this point your talking lizards are starting to look like a good indicator (although we do not recommend that you use that trading method regularly), and your BUDFJ option is in-the-money. You may either sell off the option at current market value, which should net a nice profit, or you can hold on to it a bit longer to see if your bullish BUD continues to run for a potentially unlimited gain. If, on the other hand, your lizards were a little off on this option selection (as most talking lizards tend to be) and BUD does not climb above 50, you are still only out your initial investment.

Buying Puts

Just as call buying is the most basic options trading strategy you can employ when expecting upward movement in a stock, put buying is the most basic options trading strategy at your disposal when you expect a stock's value to drop. By purchasing a put, you are investing in the belief that a particular security's value will fall below a certain price by the option's expiration date.

Here are a couple of things to keep in mind when buying puts:

· Puts can allow you to profit from a downward move in an equity.

· Since you are buying an option, you have the right, though not the obligation, to sell the underlying shares at the strike price. Thus, you do not have to own the shares to buy a put. Only if you exercise your put option would you have to go out in the open market, buy the shares, and then sell the stock at the contract (strike) price. Bear in mind that you will incur two stock commissions - one to buy the shares and one to sell them to the put seller.

· The simplest alternative to capture a profit is to sell the put for a gain after a decline in the stock.

If you exercise a put, you end up either with a short stock position or no stock position. A short stock position results if you sell the stock at the put strike but don't own the shares. You end up with no stock position if 1) you already owned the shares (in other words, the put you bought was for protection, also known as a "married put") and you sell them at the strike price, or 2) you didn't own the shares (in other words, you bought the put for speculation) and you decide to go out and buy the shares and then sell them at the strike.

Some investors might tend to shy away from puts, preferring instead to short the stock. Put buying is a limited-risk alternative to short selling, as they provide leverage without the added cost of margin. Purchasing puts also frees the trader from paying dividends, which is required of the short seller. Another advantage is that puts may be bought without waiting for an uptick, as opposed to many short sales. A severely falling market in which stock prices are quickly eroding is the most advantageous time to own puts.

Let's look at a hypothetical put buying scenario. You feel very bearish about a certain fast-food chain (stock ticker ABC). Your indicators may result from market analysis or simply a gut feeling (induced by a big box of cold fries), but either way, you are certain that ABC, which is currently trading at 50, will decline below 45 within two months. Your course of action is to either short the stock at 50 or buy an ABC 50 put that expires in two months at a cost of 5.

The following table shows the profit and loss of these two strategies at various stock prices at expiration. Note that the short position is more profitable by the amount of the put's premium (five points) as long as the stock stays flat or moves lower. Above 50, the put position has reached its maximum loss point at 5, while the short position continues losing at a linear rate. At 55, both positions are saddled with a loss of 5, while above 55, the short sale incurs a larger loss than the put purchase.

Stock Price At Expiration	Profit/loss of 50 Put Position	Profit/Loss of Short Sale Position
40	+5	+10
45	0	+5
46	-1	+4
47	-2	+3
48	-3	+2
49	-4	+1
50	-5	0
51	-5	-1
52	-5	-2
53	-5	-3
54	-5	-4
55	-5	-5
60	-5	-10

Differentiating Between In-, At-,
and Out-of-the Money Stock Options

A stock option may always be categorized in one of three ways: in-the-money, at-the-money, or out-of-the-money. An at-the-money option, also referred to sometimes as an on-the-money option, is one whose strike price is equal to that of the underlying stock's market value. In-the-money and out-of-the-money options are each determined in one of two ways, depending on whether the option is a call or a put.

A call option is classified as in-the-money if its strike price is less than the market value of the underlying stock. For example, an Adobe July 30 call would be in-the-money if Adobe is trading above 30. If the strike price of a call is greater than the market value of the underlying stock, it is considered out-of-the-money. If Adobe shares are trading below 30, the Adobe July 30 call would be out-of-the-money.

For put options, the reverse is true. A put will be in-the-money if its strike price is greater than the market value of the underlying stock and out-of-the-money if the underlying stock's value is greater than the strike price. An Allergan July 100 put, for example, will be in-the-money if Allergan is trading below 100 and out-of-the-money if Allergan is trading above 100.

Sounce - www.SchaeffersResearch.com

Wednesday, October 28, 2009 Market Expectation

2009-10-28T08:04:00.008-04:00

Long APT @ $5.80 (10% of Intended Capital)

=================================

Earnings play Short AKAM via Vertical PUT Spread of 17.50/20 (long 20 puts & short 17.50 puts) for $0.60

=================================

As per my expectation ES has found support at 50% retracement level at 1055 (low is 1052.50) I still expect market to fill the gap around 1053 during trading hours if not my next target for ES is 1072 area. If Bulls can push ES over 1080 the next target is 1120.

Short Candidate.

As most of you know I went to India for 25 days, I was watching the Indian market and based on sensex and nifty charts I am assuming the market has topped out, the uptrend has broken and based on that I pulled the IFN chart. I like what I see on the chart and I will initiate a short position on IFN today based on market action. My target on IFN is around $15.00

I will be doing a Vertical Put Spread 22.50/25 (long 25 put and short 22.50 spread)

Risk $50 Reward $200 possible return of 400%

Long Candidate.

APT, a tech stock and look at the move. I call this a rocket move. APT broke the range in which it used to trade and now its flying. Sky is the limit. My target on this sucker (If market resumes to go higher) is around $11.00. Scaling in to APT with long position will be based on market action today.

Stay tuned for intra-day updates and trade alert.

I am also extending the testing phase of my stock pick system. If you are interested in the testing phase and would like to check out what you will get in service please email me at tradingsigns at gmail dot com

Thanks,

Back from India & Ready to trade.

2009-10-27T11:57:00.006-04:00

Sold TZA Nov 2009 12.50 Calls for $1.20 with 20% profit.

=============================================

Long FSLR Via Vertical Call Spread of 170/180 (long 170 short 180) for $1.75

=============================================

Sup guys,

I got back from India yesterday. I am glad I don't have jet leg and I am watching market already. I guess I didn't miss much during my trip. Anyways, here's a quick chart of ES and my target on short and long. (short @ 1072 long @ 1053-1055 area)

If ES breaks 1061 before 1072 we are going to fill the gap around 1053 area

Stay tuned for more charts.

Hello from mother land.

2009-10-04T23:46:00.004-04:00

Sup guys,

I hope everyone is doing great and enjoying this nice much needed pull back. I wish I could be there to take the advantage of this nice pull back but not going to complaint I am having good time with my family and friends here in India.

It's super hot here, about 90 degrees. I see the market pulled back as expected. SPX broke a nice important 9 month trend line. To confirm the down signal we need a follow through a weekly close below 1010. I will try to work on charts and keep you guys updated.

Have fun with this drop looks like I am going to miss on this one. :D

See you guys later

AMZN my fav. Short right now.

2009-09-29T12:21:00.003-04:00

***Trade Alert***

Bought AMZN Jan 2010 Vertical Put Spread (80/85 Long 85 Put Short 80 Put) @ $1.65

Possible Maximum profit of 205% around $335.00 max profit.

================================================================================

AMZN is on fire in past 2 weeks, but as I always look at the bigger picture I love what I see on AMZN chart. I think risk/rewards are simply amazing by shorting Amazon.

I have working order to buy AMZN November 80/85 Vertical Put Spreads @ $1.35 with target profit of $365 (appx. 270% return)

If Amazon fills the gap at 84.00 I can get the maximum profit.

Place your bets team.

Trade Alert - Sold SPY VCS 106/112

2009-09-28T11:01:00.002-04:00

================================

****Trade Alert****

Sold SPY Vertical CAll Spread $106/$112 for nice 25% profit.

================================

Holding TZA Vertical Call Spread ($12.50/$15)

Two Red days in a row.. now what??

2009-09-24T17:01:00.000-04:00

Yesterday and Today two down days in a row but now what? Well let's thank RIMM earnings that we can expect another possible down day. As per my Fib RL set up I was expecting market to test 1033 area but I spot something on the chart and decided to lighten up my short position. I am still majority short but decided to hedge myself through SPY Oct 106/112 Vertical Call Spread.

So over all I am bearish but it's always to be safe than sorry. That's why I took profit on SRS and TZA and kept my other short position which is now hedge with SPY Calls. If market resumes to drop I need to see SPX and ES to hold their ground around 1033 area (+ or - couple of points)

I hope everyone is position for either direction. Congrats to Anna and all other at Evil Speculators who went short on RIMM via VPS 70/75. Anna you are going to bank some big coins tomorrow. Great job on that trade. RIMM AH trading around $73.45 I think you will get $4.00/per contract for which you paid $1.00

If you like the information here you can help me make some coins too. LOL you know how! so obey people.

Comment and Critics are always welcome.

Enjoy the video

No Cookie for Oil

2009-09-24T09:44:00.000-04:00

================================

****Trade Alert****

Long SPY 106/112 Vertical Call Spread @ $1.53

================================

****Trade Alert****

Sold Rest of of SRS @ $10.10 for +0.60

================================

So finally the gap is filled. Also do you see a huge H&S Pattern? Damn man so much for gap fill.

================================

****Trade Alert****

Sold TZA Vertical CAll Spread 10/15 for nice 30% profit.

================================

****Trade Alert****

Sold 25% of SRS @ $10.00 for +0.50

================================

You can do it, come on SRS I want breakout.

Looks like Oil is on a mission. A nice breakdown on Oil should pull equities down with it.

Quick Test and Portfolio Update

2009-09-24T06:51:00.000-04:00

Yesterday's close brought a much needed smile on Bears faces, while market is trading totally on it's own ignoring the real world and real economy we need to take the advantage of whatever profit we can get.

We are small players and our aim should be nothing but small profit unless of course market gives us a big chunk. Based on the system I created and for people with less than 25k account here's what I have been doing. A quick report on my stock picks and how they are reacting.

With yesterday's drop I was ready to take 50% off on all long but I didn't. I wanted to see how ES acting overnight. As I suspected the 1050 on ES is still holding and so am I on my longs. But wait as I mentioned "Aim small Miss small" I will take 20% off the table on my longs on market open. If ES drops below 1050 I will take another 30% off and hold full 100% short position.

If ES breaks the 1050 market I expect it to test 1030. I will be looking to get long around 1030 area unless of course market has change direction towards Texas.

I am also holding SRS and TZA Vertical call spreads hedged by SPY Vertical Call spread. On yesterday's pop I sold my SPY Vertical call spreads for decent 25% profit and how just holding SRS and TZA.

Since I started using my system and believing in my own research I got paid for my own work. Take a look at this.

The chart of performance is no joke, it's my own real trading account performance.

I also want to thank Arak (Raja Arun) who spent a lot of time guiding & teaching me a lot of important aspects of trading. Thanks Arak for all your time.

Special Thanks to all of those who volunteer and are currently participating in the testing of the system. Thank you for all your suggestion. I am currently working on it and will be implementing them from today itself.

Once again if any of you are interested in taking part of this testing phase feel free to email me @ tradingsigns at gmail dot com.

Once again I want you all to remember I got burned big time for expecting market to act the way I wanted but it's not like that, we have to act according to market. This economy is fucked up no doubt but that doesn't mean I have to short the market everyday. I rather ride the wave and collect small but consistent amount than go short, get emotional and act like little bitch. Hedging work and it will save you if the market brings the expected in unexpected way.

Stay tuned for more intra-day, daily and weekly post.

Cheers!!!

Stocks with poor performance on this ramp up.

2009-09-10T19:04:00.000-04:00

Coming Soon......!!!!

2009-09-09T08:34:00.000-04:00

Good morning,

I hope everyone is doing good and trading wisely. I know lately I am slacking to post my charts and market expectation but there is a good reason behind it. I have been working on a system to server you guys. So far I gathered information for about 500 stocks. My plan is to launch the stock pick system in November. Initially I was thinking to keep the service for $14.99 but the amount of work I am putting is way too much compare to price that's why I have decided to start the service at $29.99. In the service you will get a daily top 10-20 top stocks based on different calculations and technical analysis. The whole purpose of my service is to find the stock with great fundamentals and technical setups. The combine results of both will give us a great return on investments.

Here are couples of stocks just to illustrate to you guys. If you are interested and willing to get more details on the service please email me @ tradingsigns@gmail.com
I will start testing the system soon, if you want to be part of testing process please email me and I will send out the daily, weekly and monthly emails with charts and market expectation.

Bull Market or Bear Market?

2009-08-21T10:43:00.000-04:00

This type of moves doesn’t surprise me at all anymore. What we are forgetting is we are still in the quarter which is full of surprises. Most companies coming out with positive earnings based on only cost cutting and not on actual revenue. Give one more quarter to all these hype and we will get a real picture. I am not saying we will get another crash or another run up all I am looking for how these companies will make money.

The cost cutting is the key for this quarter but what about revenue? I didn’t see any company come out with surprising numbers in revenue. Now cost cutting is limited, may be limited to only this quarter, or perhaps a littler left over effect in next quarter but then what? The economy is still weak; the next problem will be unemployment. If any company is not able to make revenue how is that going to give us a bull market? No revenue means no new jobs, rising unemployment will cause another crash? I don’t know but what I know is when I see profit I will take it and won’t think about tomorrow. Market can run or drop but what I will be doing is booking the profit and calling it a day.

Bull market or Bear market what every trader should look for is an opportunity on daily basis, the work for ST, IT or LT is worthless.

Good luck.

Market Expectations for 8/21/09

2009-08-20T18:44:00.000-04:00

Market expectation for 8/14/2009

2009-08-14T06:15:00.000-04:00

EDIT: Short BAC @ $17.17 this will be my long-term bet. I am shorting only 5% of intended capital to BAC short. If BAC goes to $18.15-$18.50 area i will add another 5-10% based on the market at that time. if we break below $16.80 I will add another 2.5% and will add same % on boths side on every $1 jump/dump till BAC fills for Chapter 11.

Looking to go long @ 1002-1005 area with stop @ 999 target 1019.50-1020

My buddy at Big Trend Trader just posted this interesting chart. Check it out.

Where are we heading? Texas or New York?

2009-08-13T12:05:00.000-04:00

Th only way you can make money in this market is by doing day trading only. Market is giving enough room to Bear and Bulls to make money. Here's are my chart update, SPX is the most interesting chart as we have to wait and see where $SPX closes today. Are Bulls still in control or they are losing the steam?

Comment and critics are welcome!

Did SPX made an ST top?

2009-08-12T08:16:00.000-04:00

Good morning traders,

Based on what I am looking we may have a possible top on SPX. As you can see SPX touched the lower channel. Also the FullS showing possible trend change on weekly chart. I like to use weekly chart for a better and clear understanding of the market. on daily chart we are getting the same results with other studies. We are way too overbought, with media pumping news we are in new bull market it feels like we are back in 2007. Right before the bubble was bust everyone was looking for 1600-1700 on SPX.

My over all market view is bearish but I am not going to take heavy short side, as we know this market is acting is very strange way (talk about market manipulation) so keeping it small is the only way we can preserve the capital and limit our losses. Today @ 2:15PM we have FOMC announcement another reason to play small.

Below charts shows what levels to look for. Based on the daily ES chart we need a close below 979 for a revisit of 950-940. VIX, $NYA also shows a possible trend change.

USD is also getting some support around 77.50 now the key level for dollar is to bust higher than 80.00 mark. A close above 80 would be a wonderful help for bearish outlook.

Let's not get married to one side, keep an open approch to market and keep playing both long/short side.

Good luck everyone!

A Look at UUP and the VIX

2009-08-09T09:07:00.000-04:00

This is a brief look at structures that affect/relate to the general market direction in order to better understand where we are presently. This is tricky. It is a longer term view. There is so much bullishness around is scares me. Even some bears have turned bullish (or unfortunately capitulated) and the Dow Theorists have confirmed a bullish switch in the market although Richard Russell qualified this by stating a bullish confirmation of the Dow Theory does not guarantee that we continue up indefinitely. I will start with the dollar.

The dollar as represented by the UUP chart is at a very interesting point. On the 60 minute, there was a narrowing of the Bollinger bands, always a precursor, a sign of a dramatic move in some direction either with the trend or a change in trend. There is a distinct island reversal on the UUP DAY chart. Also on the DAY chart, I have noted the divergence with arrows. I scrolled back on numerous charts on numerous stocks and stock indexes and found this fact alone to be an excellent sign of an impending change in direction. Divergence as represented in the MACD and the Oscillator, never failed to confirm an impending change in direction when occurring under an Elliott Wave 5 in comparison to an Elliott Wave 3. As I said, this long term view has never failed, serving as a witness, as a definitive tell. But remember, I am not referring to it in a timing manner. Although I do think the market will initiate a start in its move down next week, anything can happen and indicators have been foiled lately. Whether from this we come back up and retest the high or even break a bit higher, I do not know. Topping is always a process, never an event. Time will tell.

Unfortunately, in the VIX the information is not as clear as in the dollar. There are signs that the VIX is bottoming (Elliott Wave 5 on the DAY chart) but this process could still extend for some time. Remember, a slightly lower low in the next few weeks on the VIX DAY chart would move the Elliott Wave 5 over to the right; yes, those pesky Elliott Waves can relabel, meaning the timing is not quite right for a extended turn up. As I said, the dollar has started up, may come back down one more time (I think not but do not trade what I think), and if so and then should make that important final turn and continue up for some time. This will affect the VIX's route. The stochastics and the MACD on the 60 minute VIX chart look good, the position of the stochastics on the DAY chart are of concern to me.

Look What ES did!!!

2009-08-07T13:12:00.000-04:00

Why Am I Looking at the March Bottom?

2009-08-07T07:59:00.000-04:00

Why did I choose to go back and look at the March bottom? If you note on my chart, the MACD was a very telling indicator that predicted the EW5 bottom in March. Per the MACD, the real bottom was much earlier, that divergence was absolutely awesome! Note the space between the two horizontal reddish bars.

Well, presently we are at a similar point although I wish the divergence was more pronounced.

But let me point out that this is not an exact timing thing, do not run out and short the market today because of this!

I like what I see... do you?

2009-08-07T06:54:00.001-04:00

Good morning,

I know it's been while I posted believe it or not but since I lost my job I'm more occupied. Anyways, Here are the charts I am using on daily basis, intra-day, daily, monthly looks on them to place my trade. Feel free to add your comments and critics.

Welcome our new contributor Katzo! As most of you know Katzo is really good with his EWT, I requested him to educate us all by his great EWT work.

Please welcome and respect our new team leader Katzo.

Cheers!!

Market expectation for July 27, 2009

2009-07-27T08:52:00.000-04:00

Good morning guys,

Here are few charts I am looking at and taking position accordingly, this market has turned into Day traders paradise. I am not married to the Short side but let's face it, we are flying without any meaningful pull back. Either we get the pull back we are expecting or we go sideways on the trading, in both cases I am looking to do Day Trading only, ST, IT and LT will get slaughtered. I rather make whatever I can and be happy with it. As I mentioned many times, I am not here to call the tops and bottoms, The only reason I trade is to make money. Long or Short if we end the day with profit we are successful.

Good luck.

USD and Gold chart, We are right at the 61.8% Fib level on Gold As far as ZG do not close above the 61.8% RL we can expect the -23.6% on ZG which is around 883.00

DX needs to hold certain price-level to support my expectation of pull back. If USD keeps dropping, we can expect SPX to be around 1055-1066 (See chart below)

We are right around the corner of 50% Fib RL on SPX around 990 so we are talking about about 10 points from where we closed. I do expect a small breach of 50% RL to scared the late Bears, if we keep flying high we are likely to test the 61.8% RL around 1066.

It's interesting how Crash comes in round shape and Reversal comes is V shape.

Good luck.

Finally OPEX is over

2009-07-20T08:02:00.000-04:00

The hell week OPEX is over. I see that USD is getting dumped hard and all other currencies are rallying. Crude is on the move, this will push equities higher too. I can not understand why would any investor get so stuck up with earnings that they forget the over all economic crisis. With GOOG down around 12-15 points NQ makes new high of the yr. ES is also nearing the previous high. If market keeps the same sentiment we could see 1000 on ES in no time.

The real question is, are we out of the crisis? Unemployment is still rising; every sector is down around 30% and still stock market rallies like we are in bull market. Talk about market manipulation. Looks like GS boys want to turn every bear out there into bull and then drop this market!

What worries me is the more time we take for next leg down the worse things will get. Everyone knows the entire system is wrong then is in the god’s name government is trying to fill the crack? This is the time to replace that instrument it can bring certain risk but looking at the long run it will benefit us all.

This depression shows that even the government is by the people and for the people, it only dances on the tune of Wall St. If this system is not changed we will experience a great great depression and not only for 24 months but for a whole decade.

Anyways, What I am expecting in the market is a still up move but we should expect a minor pull back either today or tomorrow. I am looking to short ES around 947 with stop at 949. Make sure you keep your stops guys, I violated my own rule and gave up all my gain and incurred loss. Now back to scratch. This market has turned into day trader’s paradise, I am joining the force. Any IT position I will take via options, as for as futures are concern I am a day trader until this market starts rolling for another crash.

Line of control

2009-07-15T13:06:00.001-04:00

Market is almost there. NDX and RUT shows they are already at their line of control, SPX needs to catch up and push a bit higher at 930.00 Where I am planning to short ES.

Target on NQ - 1495-1500 ES 928-929 TF 511-512

Following the game plan

2009-07-15T11:01:00.000-04:00

I shorted ES @ 919 with stop at 920
and TF @ 508 with stop @ 509.00

If these trades are going againts me I am ready to take loss but I will let the profit come to me. I will change the stops after certain drop on ES and TF. Till then Stops are as above.

Cheers!!

Are you BEAR or BULL?

2009-07-15T08:15:00.000-04:00

Earnings…Earings…Earnings…

First of all I apologies for not posting my charts and position here, I was mad busy understanding the market. July 13 and 14 I only had 4 hours sleep but yesterday I slept like a baby.

Now back to trading, we are back in that amazing earnings season. We just saw the trailer yesterday after hours, INTC reported good earnings and market rallied. Now we are clearly going to fill the gap at 919 but there are few possibilities. We pull back as soon as we open or we rally, on either case the line in sand is 907.50 on ES, if we get support at 907.50 we are clearly going to fill the gap killing all the bears out of this market. If bears steps in and breaks the 907.50 support we will retest the 899 range.

In both case I am neither Bear nor Bull, I am simply a trader looking to make money. So here’s the game plan, I am looking for an entry point.

Entry point to go long @ 908 with stop @ 906

Or Go short @ 919 with stop at 920.50

If anything changes on my charts I will update it over here.

Good luck.

Do not trade againts Machine.

2009-07-09T11:12:00.000-04:00

EDIT : 11:55 AM

==================================================================

Here's what we have today in the market. Nothing but BOTs trading. since morning the market
is simply trading in the box.

Are you ready for that bounce?

2009-07-07T19:41:00.000-04:00

Here are some charts I am looking at. Based on the charts I am expecting bounce tomorrow. After the bounce we will enter in the whipsaw from hell zone before any confirm up or down direction.

If you appreciate this information please share some love.

prozor7's week plan:

2009-07-06T09:20:00.000-04:00

prozor7's week plan:

good morning/day to all !
for SPX week range i would say 875-925 this is a week "point of no return". gap down from Thursday could be easily bot back but at the same time we could crash to the 822 on SPX. Monday EOD is very important for this month trading.
huge range for a week, it is going to be nasty, we could win/lose a lot this week, I would be very careful RR is to big for me and I will not buying anything first 1-2 hours it is also possible that I will not buying anything till EOD and will hold overnight. in a both cases I will post as soon direction is clear to me.

what is the plan then:
I can't clearly see day range for SPX before opening Monday, lot of things could happened during long weekend ("yes they can" regulations...)
if SPX open with gap up @ 904.50 we could see 910 in a no time then first resistance is @ 918
I will start accumulating SPY AUG PUTS

1.1 if SPX open with gap down @ 892 first resistance should be 887 if we bust that 875 is unfinished business from 05.04.2009. I will buying SPY JUL CALL @ 880 if we break 873-5 will dump all

1.2 if SPX open with huge gap down @ 887 we could see 875 in a no time I will buy SPY JUL PUTS target 822

P.S.
FSLR look as nice RR call opportunity @ 152 target 165 if it go below 149 dump all, next target will be 146 - what do you think
XLF target to watch 11.35 if we bust market will go down

opinion ... like ***** e1 has it

folks, remember Monty Python:
"Nobody expect the Spanish Inquisition" there's cheapest weapon are: surprise, surprise and fear, surprise, fear, ruthless efficiency... :)

Congratulations to Nandu,

2009-07-05T10:41:00.000-04:00

It's official.

The Ace Trader portal is launched as promise.

http://myacetrader.com/

The portal looks simply amazing.

Great work done my Nandu and his developer team. I wish you all the best to NK.

Long ES @ 899.00

2009-07-02T10:40:00.001-04:00

I will be looking to exit this and go short around 908-907 area.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: Thursday, July 2, 2009

2009-07-02T07:45:00.001-04:00

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, July 2, 2009

8:30 AM ET. June 27 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims 619K 627K
Weekly Jobless Claims Net
Change -8K +15K
Continuing Jobless Claims 6738000
Continuing Jobless Claims Net
Change +29K

8:30 AM ET. June Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls -350K -345K
Unemployment Rate 9.6% 9.4%
Average Hourly Earnings 18.54
Average Hourly Earnings Net
Change +0.1% +0.1
Manufacturing Payrolls -156K
Overall Workweek 33.1
Overall Workweek Net Change -0.1
Service Producing Payrolls -120K

10:00 AM ET. June 20 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer
-0.4% 10:00 AM ET. May Factory Orders
Total Orders +1.2% +0.7%
Orders, Ex-Defense +0.3%
Orders, Ex-Transportation +0.1%

10:30 AM ET. June 19 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage 2651
Total Working Gas in Storage
(Net Change) +94

4:30 PM ET. July 1 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars
Primary Credit Borrowings 49.2B
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E
Daily Avg 39.1B
Primary Dealer Borrowings 0
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E
Daily Avg 0
Discount Window Borrowings 132.66B
Discount Window Borrowings W/E
Daily Avg 123.7B

4:30 PM ET. July 1 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars
Foreign US Debt Holdings 2.75T
US Foreign Agency Holdings 806.3B
Foreign Treasury Holdings 1.94T

4:30 PM ET. June 22 Money Supply
=============================================================

EDIT:

Now I am just holding my SPY PUTs.

The real American Dream

2009-07-01T16:37:00.001-04:00

Wife running after a garbage truck: Am I too late for the garbage?

Hubby following her yelled: Not Yet. Jump In Fastttt.

covered 50% ES @ 919.50 for +1.50

2009-07-01T15:45:00.000-04:00

Still holding 50% ES over night with SPY PUTS.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: Wednesday, July 1, 2009

2009-07-01T08:08:00.001-04:00

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

7:00 AM ET. June 26 Mortgage Applications

Market Composite Index (previous 548.2)

Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous +6.6%)

Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 280.3)

Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous +7.3%)

Refinance Index (previous 2116.3)

Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous +5.9%)

8:15 AM ET. June ADP National Employment Report

10:00 AM ET. June ISM Mfg Index

Manufacturing PMI (expected 45; previous 42.8)

Prices Index (previous 43.5)

Employment Index (previous 34.3)

Inventories (previous 32.9)

New Orders Index (previous 51.1)

Production Index (previous 46)

10:00 AM ET. May Construction Spending

New Construction (expected -1%; previous +0.8%)

10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales (expected -0.5; previous +6.7%)

10:30 AM ET. June 26 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 353.85M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected -2.1M; previous -3.86M_

Gasoline Stocks (previous 208.95M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected +1.9M; previous +3.87M)

Distillate Stocks (previous 152)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected +1.6M; previous +2.07M)

Refinery Usage (expected 87.3%; previous 87.1%)

N/A June Auto Sales (expected 9.9M; previous 9.9M)

Market expectation for June 30, 2009

2009-06-30T08:54:00.001-04:00

EDIT: 2:05 PM

We should get some support at this level on SPX around 907-906 on ES. If we fail to get support on that level we will fall well below 900. I would still wait for a bounce to short this market. Low volume is either side game. Be careful if you are short or long at this levels.

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EDIT: 11:45 PM

Covered NQ @ 1470.00 for +6

I will wait for a better entry to short ES or NQ now. Just holding my SPY puts.
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I like what I see on SPX. Do you?

We are at the line of control on NDX. We should see some weakness in NQ at this levels.

EDIT: 10:00 AM

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If you like my work please share some love. :-)

Market expectation for June 29, 2009

2009-06-29T09:26:00.000-04:00

EDIT: 10:40 AM

Short ES @ 921.50

Good morning traders,

Here's my expectation on SPX today. It is possible either we test the 930 on SPX today or tomorrow. Don't go crazy with your short position. If we break certain level on SPX we may see new highs so remember "Aim small miss small"

Short NQ @ 1477.00

2009-06-26T10:00:00.001-04:00

EDIT: 11:50 PM

10 mins to 2:00 and TF is drawing higher lows and no weakness, ES is weak but not breaking below 910.00 NQ is like a drunk money keep jumping between 1479-1475 range.

At this moment I don’t know what to do. I am still holding my shorts but If we start going higher I will wait to see the correlation between SPX and ES and take my position accordingly.

Make sure you are not 100% short. I would suggest keeping small position; this market is not giving any clear direction. Play small so you can deal with your loss.

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EDIT : 10:03 AM

Covered 25% NQ @ 1469.00 for +7.00

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I will add more if we go higher but I doubt.

ES and TF both are showing weakness, NQ is trying to take us higher but ES and TF is not participating.

This will be my IT position, so I am not looking to close it today unless something changes.

Patience and plan pays, Slow and steady wins.

2009-06-25T16:43:00.000-04:00

Here's the truth, learning from mistakes. patience pays, stick to plan, limit your loss and wait for you trade. Don't let you emotions control you.

Comment and critics are welcome.

P.S. my performance graph includes the invested capital since 2009. Once I recover all my 2009 losses I will update the chart and add my 2008 losses to recover every penny i lost.

So Far So good.

2009-06-25T10:55:00.001-04:00

Trading Signs

MF Global Precurser to European Debacle

Elliott Wave Theory & Analysis

Charts de Katzo7

Market Make or Break Time

Comment Cleaner

Dollar hitting a downtrend TL here!

Game plan for Dollar and Euro

ES weekly chart pointing for a pull back

YTD performance vs. No BS, No game

Support and Resistance vs. Charts

Still holding my EUR/USD and EUR/NZD short

Market anticipation based on charts

Current holdings

/ES up from the support level.

/DX on weekly support will it hold?

KGC & POT for Long position & EUR/USD

Long BP and JASO

EUR/USD and GBP/USD closed

AAPL short closed! Playing safe

Current Holdings

I am BACK!!!!

Line in sand for Bulls and Bears

Disconnection in the market.

ES at 50% retracement

Riding the wave.

Surprise Surprise Surprise.

Market View Charts!

Wednesday Bed time story.

Bed Time Story

Market Expectations for November 12, 2009

Do you see what I see?

Market Expectations for November 04, 2009

Quick Test and Portfolio Update 11/03/09

Market Expectations for November 03, 2009

Why Options? Part-2

Intrinsic Value and Time Value in Stock Options

Converting a Coca-Cola April 75 Call Into Option Symbol KODO

How Stocks and Stock Options Differ

The Three Styles of Exercise Features

8 Myths About Stock Options

A Brief History of Stock Options

Market Expectations for November 02, 2009

Market Expectations for October 30, 2009

Why Options? Part-1

Getting Started With Stock Options

Defining Stock Options

Exercising Stock Options

Realizing That Stock Options Expire

Understanding Strike Prices

Buying Calls

Buying Puts

Differentiating Between In-, At-,and Out-of-the Money Stock Options

Wednesday, October 28, 2009 Market Expectation

Back from India & Ready to trade.

Hello from mother land.

AMZN my fav. Short right now.

***Trade Alert*** - Sold SPY VCS 106/112

Two Red days in a row.. now what??

No Cookie for Oil

Quick Test and Portfolio Update

Stocks with poor performance on this ramp up.

Coming Soon......!!!!

Bull Market or Bear Market?

Market Expectations for 8/21/09

Market expectation for 8/14/2009

Where are we heading? Texas or New York?

Did SPX made an ST top?

A Look at UUP and the VIX

Look What ES did!!!

Why Am I Looking at the March Bottom?

I like what I see... do you?

Market expectation for July 27, 2009

Finally OPEX is over

Line of control

Following the game plan

Are you BEAR or BULL?

Do not trade againts Machine.

Are you ready for that bounce?

prozor7's week plan:

Differentiating Between In-, At-,
and Out-of-the Money Stock Options

Trade Alert - Sold SPY VCS 106/112