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Feb
08

Range Trading activated.

Reply/ES, /YG, DX, Gold, SPXFebruary 8th, 2010T. Waffle

Good Morning gang,

I hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl and the great play by Saints (sorry if you are colts fan) but the win was well deserved.  Anyways,  Here are the charts you should be looking at.

The market gave us a nice down move but it’s not over yet, we are likely to get a bounce here as we are approaching the OPEX week. A healthy bounce is needed for further downside as we always have to keep in mind that Drop comes in Water fall style and Reversal comes in V shape. We want market to gradually get back to a level from where we can have another waterfall and not over extend the short that we may experience a sharp reversal.

SPX Daily

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SOX Daily

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ES Daily chart

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As you can see that shorts are covering and buyers are stepping in, we could get some bounce here If SPX gets boost above 1070 we could see a nice bounce at most stops are around 1070 area. I received few emails asking me how am I playing this moves and my answer was simple by Iron Condors. My over all outlook on economy is bearish but that doesn’t mean I have to short the market. From history we only get crash once in a decade but we do get range trading either to the upside or downside. To play the range there is no other instrument than Iron Condor. I am also trading for long term (2-4yrs) target play on longs and they are mostly basic commodities. All the basic human needs which are in color white will get expensive. Milk, Eggs, Sugar, Rice, food etc. I am building a portfolio where I am going to hold all these items for at least 3-5yrs and keep playing options on ETFs like SPY, QID, SSO, TWM, SKF etc.

I will be doing a live trading next week mostly on Thursday or Friday, so make sure you give me your stock picks and I will try to cover that.

Cheers!!

  • I'd like to short LEN at 17.5.-17.7. in fact, If I see LEN at 17.7, I'll even short XHB, to boot.
  • CVX chart, $67’s doubtful. Yep, I'm really starting to think CVX, isn't going to the 67's.
    btw, it was easy to find this site, from your other old site.
  • Current major positions Long FAS, SSO Short QQQQ all Vertical spreads
    Iron Condor - AAPL, IWM, SPY Collecting 100% premium on all ICs
    Long Shares - AIPC, CPO, IPSU, LWAY, TSN, WBD, SMFM, BZF, UUP, CPL, SBS, CALM...
  • Shorting QQQQ via 42/37 vertical puts spread for $0.80
  • no pets ever

    Oh well... back to REAL trading, what's the plan for today TW ?
  • Current major positions Long FAS, SSO Short QQQQ all Vertical spreads
    Iron Condor - AAPL, IWM, SPY Collecting 100% premium on all ICs
    Long Shares - AIPC, CPO, IPSU, LWAY, TSN, WBD, SMFM, BZF, UUP, CPL, SBS, CALM...
  • I am holding my longs and will close them around 1080+ area.

    Cheers!!
  • rrman
    Well T what do you think we do tonight Helge's chart has been tracking good he shows a big low about 11pm eastern wonder if we make 1055 tonight...

    http://www.cyclelt.com/INT.htm
  • we are above 1065 at the close which is still showing more run upside. I also so decent size of buy orders at close so I am still thinking of a positive close tomorrow and may be mid day we drop.
  • What did I tell you about dollar as soon as it break the 80 mark we will see some fire works. Check it out.
  • My Gold target is around 1102.50 area. not today but this up move will get some resistance around 1102 area for /YG
  • 1066.50 is 50% Retracement of the move from 1063.25 to 1069.00 target is 1071.50. level to watch is 1065.50, if ES break 1065.50 before 1071.50 it could fill the gap.
  • Here it comes guys, put your rally hats on.
  • rrman
    Good morning T whats your es target 1074?
  • Yes 1074 is where we should experience some resistance, as I am expecting stops are around 1075+ area
  • EUR/USD is ready to rally which will push Dollar down and help equities to gain. If Dollar drops below 80 mark target 78.50 as next strong support..
  • rrman
    I like the 78.50 target think i'll hold for a while longer on my /dx shorts
  • I am sure we will see that either by end of this week or early next week. That should hold on /DX.

    My Picks CPO, TSN, AIPC, SMFM are doing really well.
  • /ES should find support at 1063 and rally to 1075 area
  • Long SSO Via 36/40 Vertical Call spread. @ $1.18
  • Market will try to fill the gap here but I have a feeling the buyers will jump in half way.
  • Long LWAY for long term holding.
  • /ES currently trading below VWAP. a break of 1060 will give immediate target of 1055
  • Going forward all my options trades will be for March 2010 unless it's specified as Feb 2010 trades.
  • no pets ever
    Great job TW. Glad you are back. Funny thing you were way ahead of "somebody" else doing live trading on Livestream. That makes me wondering, who copied who ? Oh wait, don't tell me, I know :) Anyway, enough with the "building puts snow balls" trading style hoping to catch a top. It's time to take the lead TW, you are a better, faster and smarter trader. Keep up the great job here !!
  • Thank you for kind words and putting the reality in words. Will keep providing you with charts and info on daily basis. Live trading and webcast will be on regular basis soon.
  • First TICK extreme on /ES @ 1068.50
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