MF Global Precurser to European Debacle

Possible real game changer today, market may be finally moving from oscillation and into sustained down move. Charts need to prove this out. Set up is there but will it work?

Elliott Wave Theory & Analysis

Here are some thoughts about EWT and analysis. This ingenious technique was derived by the accountant Ralph Elliott after being struck by an illness and consequently turned his focus analyzing stock market charts. It is basically a method of charting human emotion, the two basic human emotion components of greed and fear. One can primarily see this in an EW5 to 1 to 2 to 3 transition. The chart posted below shows a particularly nasty 24 hour time frame EW4 ABC move (yellow box). A drop occurred right after the close to 1315.75 (intel earnings), then we go up, this prolly eased some bulls minds, but then in subsequent a/h action we move back down to 1316. As my EW teacher said, it is best to stay away from EW4 moves and this one shows the angst and apprehension that accompanies these '4' moves unless one can identify them and therefore identify the levels when one needs to switch. A particularly nasty one. If one cannot identify these, one is positioned right, then wrong, then right.

ES day trading risk is always limited to a 4 to 6 tick loss with a risk/reward ratio set to 3 to 1 or above. By applying EWT to this equation one can see if we are in an EW3 or 5 with a better than 3 to 1 ratio,or if one should be apprehensive of a brewing EW2 or 4, or ending 3 or 5 and be watchful to getting out quickly if positioned and reversing. It is surprising that one can achieve a successful gain in one's portfolio with a 40% success ratio, by applying EWT to trading can boost this percentage much much higher as the understanding of the correct direction, anticipated breadth, and pending limitation of the run becomes instrumental in appraising entries and exits.

Charts de Katzo7

Hi guys,

Katzo7's charts on current market view.

enjoy!!

http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2d68d1d8-9bba-4441-9948-212f9259d017


http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/adf9b827-6d37-483f-a8c4-81c0f80db2fd

Market Make or Break Time

$VIX is at critical juncture right now, bears watching. It was up 9.3% on Friday (was up 15% at one point) and it in conjunction with market action will determine if we break through the bottom of the support line or if we go up. A turn up here means 1280 ES, a break means back to test 1254, then possibly 1244, then even lower. Those yellow vertical lines are timing bands, a break now would be early relative to those, they usually drag this out for a bit longer.

Comment Cleaner

Nothing but just comment cleaner.

This is me riding over the weekend with my group. You can subscribe to my youtube channel to view more videos.

Enjoy!!

Dollar hitting a downtrend TL here!

Dollar with this pop is hitting the resistance here, if you are long take profit. With this move EUR/USD is now setting up for a nice bounce towards 1.50 area. I am staying long on /M6E

There is a possibility for dollar to break this TL and fill the open gap at 75.26. If not we should expect to head back down. Dollar weakness is not yet over. It has more room to drop then pop.

Cheers!!

Game plan for Dollar and Euro

Here's my game for Dollar and Euro. Currently long Dollar average price 75.31
Short /M6E average price 1.4317.

Following chart explains all. Possible H&S pattern on Euro should get us around 1.41XX level.

Where we could stall and head back up or drop below. In any case I am planning to take off /DX at 75.615 and /M6E @ 1.4232 and go long at the same price with tight stop at 1.4200 even.

These are hard stop just to be safe if euro decides to drop further towards 1.40 area.

Currently I don't have stop on /DX long or /M6E short. I will see hows it acting overnight and apply my stops.

CheerS!!